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[Features of this month] Domestic rice prices have risen and fallen, and international rice prices have fallen
Note: The domestic price refers to the national wholesale average price of late indica rice (standard one), and the international price refers to the after-tax price of rice in Bangkok, Thailand (25% inclusive rate). Calculation.
[Later trend] As domestic policy rice auctions continue to advance, supply is further relaxed, the weather is getting hotter, rice consumption is entering a low season, the start-up rate of processing companies is gradually decreasing, and the downward pressure on domestic rice prices in the short term is expected to be greater. As Vietnam and other countries resume exports, it is expected that international rice prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust.
(1) Domestic rice prices are basically stable. As policy rice transactions continue to advance, domestic rice supplies tend to be loose. The weather is getting hotter, rice terminal consumption is reduced, and the start-up rate of processing companies is decreasing. The overall price of rice remained stable and weak. In May, the average purchase price of early indica rice was 1.20 yuan per catty, down 0.8% month-on-month and up 5.3% year-on-year; late indica rice was 1.30 yuan, up 0.8% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year; japonica rice was 1.43 yuan, up 2.9% month-on-month and up 6.7 year-on-year %.
(2) Domestic rice prices are strong, japonica and indica are weak. Rice in the sales area has sufficient inventory and demand slowing down, rising temperatures, more difficult rice storage, and indica rice prices fell. Affected by the tight supply of japonica rice, the high-quality and high-quality purchase and sale prices in the market have become prominent, and the price of japonica rice has increased. In May, the average wholesale price of early indica rice was 1.89 yuan per catty, down 0.5% month-on-month and up year-on-year 1.6%; late indica rice was 2.08 yuan, unchanged from the previous month, up 2.0% year-on-year; japonica rice was 2.16 yuan, up 1.4% from the previous month and 6.4% year-on-year.
(3) International rice prices fell. Rice exports from countries such as Vietnam and India resumed, the international rice market was gradually loosened, and prices gradually declined. In May, the international rice price (Bangkok FOB price, 25% including broken rate, the same below) was US$494 per ton, down 8.0% month-on-month and up 22.9% year-on-year.
(4) The after-tax price of international rice is higher than domestic, and the price gap continues to narrow. In May, the after-tax price of Thai rice under the 1% tariff within the quota was 2.11 yuan per catty, 0.03 yuan per catty higher than the domestic wholesale price of late indica rice, and the price difference was 0.16 yuan less than the previous month; the FOB price was equivalent to 1.75 yuan per catty. , 0.33 yuan lower than domestic, 15.9% lower.
(5) From January to April, the import and export volume both fell. According to customs statistics, China imported 189,500 tons of rice in April, a decrease of 28.7% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 29.2%; exported rice was 243,800 tons, a decrease of 28.0% month-on-month, and a year-on-year decrease of 30.5%. From January to April, imports of rice were 752,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%; imports were US$394 million, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%; exports of rice were 765,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; exports were US$322 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Imported rice mainly comes from Vietnam (accounting for 25.7% of total imports), Myanmar (accounting for 24.9%), Pakistan (accounting for 16.3%), Cambodia (accounting for 14.6%), Thailand (accounting for 12.7%), and Taiwan (accounting for 3.6%) .
Source: Ministry of Agriculture of PRC